The Chart Predicting Oahu’s Next Market Move — And the Hidden Risk Reshaping Home Values

The data shows momentum. The insurance trends show caution. Together, they tell the real story of 2026.

Author

Jennifer Peele
April 05, 2026

Market Pūle

Every year, closed sales dip in the winter (Nov–Feb) and then climb sharply in the spring and early summer (Mar–Jul).

Since 2023, Oahu’s housing market has followed the same heartbeat: a winter slowdown, followed by a spring surge. No matter the interest rates or inventory shifts, buyers wake back up every March.

If history is any guide, we’re about to enter Oahu’s annual spring upswing. Closed sales should climb steadily through early summer, bringing more activity and renewed momentum to the market.

Single‑family home prices follow a steady “stair‑step upward” trend every year — dipping slightly in fall/winter, then jumping again by spring.

Looking at the last three years of median prices, Oahu’s single‑family homes follow a reliable rhythm: a winter cooldown followed by a spring lift. If that pattern holds, we’re heading into another seasonal price rise through summer. Condos, on the other hand, continue their steady, sideways trend — stable, predictable, and less sensitive to seasonal swings.

The “A-PEELE-ING” Edge

Living on our beautiful island means we know how to handle a rainy season. But if you’ve been paying attention to the weather so far in 2026, you know things are feeling a bit different. We aren't just dealing with muddy hiking trails or ruined beach days anymore; we are having serious conversations about property risk.

Fixer Upper Opportunity

Here is a Makiki listing priced at $265,000, and similar units in the best condition have sold for around $350,000, which means there’s strong upside after renovation. Because this unit is in poor condition, a traditional conventional loan may not work unless the appraiser considers it habitable.

1323 Makiki Street Unit #A212 | $265,000 | 2 Beds, 1 Bath

When a condo is too rough for conventional financing, buyers typically turn to creative options. One common approach is using a HELOC on another property to buy the unit in cash, complete the renovations, and then refinance later—this avoids all condition issues. Another option is using a hard money loan to purchase the property, renovate it, and then refinance into a conventional mortgage once the work is done. Buyers can also consider a HomeStyle Renovation Loan, which combines the purchase and renovation into one conventional loan and works for condos without needing FHA approval, as long as the unit is still structurally sound. These strategies allow buyers to secure the property, complete the upgrades, and position themselves for long‑term financing once the unit is improved.

Reply to this email if you’ll like to explore your options.

I am not the listing agent for this property this is for informational purposes only.

I GOT SHRUNKED!

Royal Realty treated all of our agents to something hilarious and adorable — we each got shrunken into 3D figurines! I can’t get over how cute they are.

If you want to bring this experience to your own event, their Mobile Scanning Booth is a great way to give guests a memorable keepsake. It’s perfect for sporting events, conventions, corporate gatherings, weddings, proms, and graduations. You can also order a 3D figurine of yourself anytime as a fun keepsake or even a wedding cake topper.

The whole process was super easy: you step into the booth, it scans you from multiple angles, and the company creates a detailed miniature and mails it to you. I’m just sharing because it was such a fun experience — no sponsorships or referral fees here, just genuine excitement.

Stay Inspired,

Discovery Call

Ready to discuss your real estate goals? Let's chat! Click here to schedule a call, or REPLY to this email.

PS — Hey btw…

As my business continues to grow, I’m excited to announce that I’m looking for a part‑time assistant to join me here on Oahu. Applicants should be based on the island, have reliable transportation, be willing to learn, and have part‑time availability.

Someone who:

  • Enjoys organizing, communicating, and problem‑solving

  • Likes a mix of admin work and light fieldwork

  • Wants to learn the behind‑the‑scenes of property management and real estate

  • Appreciates a supportive, flexible, and growth‑oriented work environment

No license required — but having one (or wanting to get one) opens the door to more opportunities and higher‑level tasks

If you or someone you know might be a good fit, I’d love to connect. This is a chance to grow alongside me, learn the industry from the inside, and help support the systems that keep everything running smoothly.